Windows 10 may be the last piece of Microsoft's cloud puzzle
Microsoft's Windows 10 has been portrayed as way to placate the
enterprise, create one platform for multiple screens and meld the interfaces of
Windows 8, which had a rocky launch, and Windows 7, a hit
The reality is that Windows 10, which is expected to be the last of the
traditional big bang launches, is likely to complete Microsoft's transition
from a software licensing model to a cloud computing one.
Windows 10 will be built around continual upgrades and stable releases
on a schedule. There won't be a Windows 11, 12 and 13, but the platform will
evolve over time. In theory, enterprises will be able to consume innovation
easier. For Microsoft, enterprise customers will become subscribers.
It's hard to argue that
Microsoft isn't a cloud company now. Azure, Office 365 and key enterprise apps
are delivered as a service. Windows is the last big chunk left under an
enterprise licensing model.
Microsoft didn't outline
pricing for Windows 10, but rest assured that there will be a
software-as-a-service cadence to it. Consider the following:
·
For consumers, Windows 10
will have monthly updates with subscriptions similar to Office 365. Businesses
will have an option to skip monthly updates.
·
Enterprise users will
likely get Windows 10 updates quarterly or every six months. The standard for
SaaS vendors is twice a year updates with releases coming with features that
aren't activated. This schedule would enable enterprises to validate the
updates.
·
Some enterprises may
choose to roll out updates every two years, but still pay subscriptions over a
term.
In either case,
enterprises will ultimately start paying for Windows by the user on a
subscription model even as Microsoft gives away the platform on smaller
screens.
The time frame for this
cloud/subscription transition will depend on how fast enterprises move from
Windows 7. Windows 10 wouldn't arrive until 2015 and enterprises on the
bleeding edge would start deployments in 2016. Most companies are going to go
with a Windows XP scenario. Windows 7 can last for years and end of life will
occur in 2020.
In other words, the rush
off of Windows XP will be emulated in 2020 with Windows 7. This scenario
assumes few enterprises will bother with Windows 8.
No matter how enterprises
move to Windows 10 — at a consumer pace, staying current with a lag or
sticking with Windows 7 as long as possible — in five to six years
Microsoft's flagship software will be under a cloud model. An added bonus for
Microsoft is that the Windows 10 launch and time frame for enterprises provides
a smooth transition from licensing to subscriptions and recurring revenue.
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Windows 10
good, keep it up
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